Unlike Southerners, those in the Northeast aren't used to the summertime drill of hurricanes and evacuation zones. Decades of study show that it is not unusual to get only half to two-thirds of the people to actually evacuate, Florida State's Baker said. And because of that "we've been lucky in this country not to have huge losses of life like we saw in Katrina" he said.
Some people fear that storms that seem to peter out - like Irene - will only make that worse. But Baker said that's not the case. In past storms - such as in , when western Florida evacuated three times and didn't get hit - the "cry wolf" syndrome did not materialize, Baker said. The same number of people evacuated for each of those storms. Every year, emergency managers and elected officials come to the National Hurricane Center in Miami and learn about the complexities of hurricane forecasts.
They practice scenarios much like Irene's, said retired center director Max Mayfield. Cutter said the death count from Irene, so far around three dozen, is extraordinarily low considering where it hit, the rainfall, tornadoes and the large size of the storm. For Bloomberg, that's the real key. He said Sunday, "the bottom line is, I would make the same decisions again without hesitation.
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Share Twit Share Email. Home Earth Earth Sciences. August 30, In this Aug. Explore further. This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. Chemists discover new way to harness energy from ammonia 31 minutes ago. Flooding was certain. The choice: Flee or stay put. Disaster experts unanimously said evacuating was the right choice and it saved lives.
But these were tough nail-biting calls that are now being second-guessed. On Friday, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, saying he worried about deadly flooding in low-lying areas, made the first ever call for hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers to leave their homes. Bush administration. Traditionally, larger areas and more people have to be evacuated than turns out to be necessary, said Florida State University professor Jay Baker, who has studied hurricane evacuation.
Jack and Sue Holloway are probably two of those lives. The Delaware residents dithered about staying at their beach home in coastal Lewes. They decided to stay, and then changed their minds when Delaware Gov.
Jack Markell urged an evacuation at a news conference. Along the Connecticut shore, East Haven firefighters went door-to-door to tell residents to leave.
Twenty-five beachfront homes were destroyed. Still, Cowles said he was glad he stayed because he had to chase away people who were watching the storm and taking pictures from his yard.
We saved lives. Vermont Gov. He said it would have been impossible to predict which towns would be hardest-hit. He was faced with getting , people out of low-lying areas before the subway was shut down by the governor. While the orders came from authorities, the decision was ultimately up to individuals. Some people fear that storms that seem to peter out - like Irene - will only make that worse.
Nobody's going to go to jail. But if you don't follow this, people might die. Meanwhile, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said subways, buses and commuter trains in the city, on Long Island and in the northern suburbs will be suspended starting around noon Saturday. Metropolitan Transportation Authority officials have said they can't run the transit system once sustained winds reach 39 mph, and they need an eight-hour lead time to shut it down.
Officials have entreated residents to take it upon themselves to get out early, but it remained unclear how many would heed the warnings that subways and buses might not be there for them if they waited. The MTA has never before halted its entire system — which carries about 5 million passengers on an average weekday — in advance of a storm, though the system was seriously hobbled by an August rainstorm that disabled or delayed every one of the city's subway lines.
On Thursday, Bloomberg ordered nursing homes and five hospitals in low-lying areas evacuated beginning Friday. At Coney Island Hospital, officials were transferring patients to six hospitals outside the evacuation zone. Even if the winds aren't strong enough to damage buildings in a metropolis made largely of brick, concrete and steel, a lot of New York's subway system and other infrastructure is underground and subject to flooding in the event of an unusually strong storm surge or heavy rains.
In the low-lying Financial District surrounding Wall Street, the New York Fed was readying contingency plans but expected normal functioning of its open market operations on Monday, a spokesman said. The city had a brush with a tropical storm, Hanna, in that dumped 3 inches of rain in Manhattan. In the last years, New York has seen only a few significant hurricanes.
In , a hurricane raised tides by 13 feet in an hour and flooded all of Manhattan south of Canal Street, the southernmost tip of the city. In the tourist district in Myrtle Beach late Friday, surfers and those who had walked down to the beach to watch the storm roiling the surf scattered.
Cars crept along Ocean Boulevard with their lights on in the downpour. A wind gust of 62 mph was reported at Springmaid Pier. At Edisto Beach, police reported waves of 10 to 12 feet and water on oceanside roads. At Folly Beach, significant erosion was reported. There was street flooding in Georgetown and standing water on roads up and down the coast. North Carolina Forecasters warned wind-whipped water could create a dangerous storm surge, with levels along North Carolina's Albemarle and Pamlico sounds rising as much as 11 feet.
Traffic was steady as people left the Outer Banks, which started getting heavy rain early Friday evening. Tourists were ordered to leave the barrier islands Thursday, though local officials estimated Friday that about half the residents on two of the islands have ignored evacuation orders.
In Nags Head, police officer Edward Mann cruised the streets in search of cars in driveways — a telltale sign some planned to stay behind. He warned those that authorities wouldn't be able to help holdouts, and that electricity and water could be out for days. Some told Mann they're staying because they feel safe or because the storm won't be as bad as predicted.
Mann, 25, said some have told him they've ridden out more storms than years he's been alive. Bucky Domanski, 71, was among those who told Mann he wasn't leaving. But my gut tells me it's not going to be as bad as predicted. I hope I'm right. Virginia After the Outer Banks, the next target for Irene is the Hampton Roads region of southeast Virginia, a jagged network of inlets and rivers that floods easily.
Emergency officials have said the region is more threatened by storm surge, the high waves that accompany a storm, than wind. Gas stations there were low on fuel Friday, and grocery stores scrambled to keep water and bread on the shelves.
Few people were left along the coast of Virginia Beach, where officials ordered the mandatory evacuation of the city's Sandbridge section. Similar orders were issued for at least 10 other localities and some roads inland had backups miles long. Maryland The beach community of Ocean City was taking no chances, ordering thousands of people to leave.
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